Such a force changes more slowly than is generally realized. Insofar as these weapons are expensive to operate and support they are likely to displace a conventional capability that might be genuinely useful in limited engagements. If the agreed-on force were small and vulnerable, no monitorable scheme would be likely to be feasible. This addition, however, conceals an absurdity. Both interpret peace in terms of balance of power or terror which is reached through conscious attempts. That is, from our standpoint, a "miscalculation."). Deterrence in the 1960s is neither assured nor impossible but will be the prod uct of sustained intelligent effort and hard choices, responsibly made. The pioneer in international applications is Wagner, R. Harrison, whose works include “ The Theory of Games and the Problem of International Cooperation,” American Political Science Review 77 (06 1983), pp. (6) They might support one or two such "turn-arounds." It is a contribution to the rhetoric rather than the logic of war in the thermonuclear age. References: Heider, F. (1958). This depends essentially on how well the rest of the force, which does not have range extension problems, can get over each of the other five obstacles: for example, the problem of surviving attack on the continental United States and penetrating enemy passive and active defense. But none of the new developments in vehicles is likely to do that. ... pp. I know in fact of no high confidence way of avoiding enormous damage to our cities in a war initiated by an aggressor with a surprise thermonuclear attack. The estimate of 50 million deaths in the Second World War includes some 20 million Soviet citizens and an estimated six million Jews and two to three million others killed in Nazi concentration camps. The Russians, exploiting an inaccurate United Press report which suggested that SAC started en masse toward Russia in response to frequent radar ghosts, cried out against these supposed Arctic flights. A generally useful way of concluding a grim argument of this kind would be to affirm that we have the resources, intelligence and courage to make the correct decisions. The next section of this article deals with this problem at some length. We hastened to make public a reaction which would restore their confidence. Suppose we design a chemically fueled bomber with the speed and altitude needed to penetrate enemy defenses and we want it to operate at a given radius from target without refueling. It conceives the problem of deterrence as that of simply matching or exceeding the aggressor's capability to strike first. But it would be a fatal mistake to confuse the inadequacy of strategic deterrence with its dispensability. They must have also the ability (b) to survive enemy attacks, (c) to make and communicate the decision to retaliate, (d) to reach enemy territory with fuel enough to complete their mission, (e) to penetrate enemy active defenses, that is fighters and surface-to-air missiles, and (f) to destroy the target in spite of any passive civil defense in the form of dispersal or protective construction or evacuation of the target itself. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. Star Trek Enterprise episode transcripts. 546 –76. In fact the radius limitation and therefore the basing requirements we have discussed will not change substantially for some time to come. Balance of Power accepts resort to war as a means, balance of terror accepts only the threat of war or threat of nuclear weapons as a means for securing the balance. However, in spite of the periodic announcements of "technological breakthroughs," the goal of emerging unscathed from a surprise thermonuclear attack has gotten steadily more remote. Though deterrence is not enough in itself, it is vital. Finally, it is important to be clear whether the Thor and Jupiter actually increase the flexibility or range of response available to our allies. He confers with one of his officers (the centurio… Missile accuracy would more than double. Even with the projected force of aerial tankers, this means that most of our force, which will be manned bombers, cannot be used at all in attacks on the Soviet Union without at least some use of overseas areas. Such a plan is worthless for discovering a well prepared attack with ICBMs or submarine-launched missiles or a routine mass training flight whose destination could be kept ambiguous. During the past 400 years it was successful, at most of the times, in preserving peace. One of the most disturbing features of current opinion is the underestimation of this difficulty. If the picture of the world I have drawn is rather bleak, it could nonetheless be cataclysmically worse. One of the principles of selecting a strategy should be to reduce the chance of accident, wherever we can, without a corresponding increase in vulnerability to a rational surprise attack. A-World War I. B-The atomic bomb. The weight of such a bomber along with the cost of buying and operating it will increase at a growing rate with the length of the design radius. 5 | 17 Second, the recent acceleration of production of our intermediate range ballistic missiles and the negotiation of agreements with various NATO powers for their basing and operation have given our overseas bases a renewed importance in deterring attack on the United States — or so it would appear at first blush. 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